Main Article Content
Introduction. In August 2015, lumpy skin disease (LSD) was notified for the first time in mainland European Union when it was observed in cattle in Greece. From August 2015 to July 2017, 1,757 outbreaks were reported in cattle in Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro.
Materials and Methods. The Kulldorff space-time permutation scan statistic contained in the software package SaTScan v 9.4.4 was used to analyse the epizootic past outbreak data and describe the spread of the disease in the 24 months after the first notification.
Results and Conclusions. Seventy-six space-time disease clusters (62 significant and 14 non-significant) were identified. In 2015, 10 clusters with a monthly peak in October (n=5, 50%) were identified, in 2016, the most (n=57) clusters were detected with monthly peak in July (n=15, 26.3%), and up to July 2017, nine clusters with a monthly peak in May (n=3, 3.3%) were determined. Possible high-risk areas were identified using the presented methodology, and so this technique could guide national veterinary authorities to formulate strategies for mitigating the spread of LSD, allocating resources and for formulating epidemiological preparedness plans in neighbouring, LSD-negative, countries.
Authors retain copyright of the published papers and grant to the publisher the right to publish the article, to be cited as its original publisher in case of reuse, and to distribute it in all forms and media. Articles will be distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY 4.0).
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